Savvy Mining Magnate Starts 
Canadian Palladium

Canadian Palladium (CSE: BULL) (OTCQB: DCNNF)   is led by Wayne Tisdale, a man that has repeatedly proven his keen skill at recognizing undervalued resource projects, developing them and making an exit that handsomely rewards shareholders. Tisdale has six – count ‘em, six – successful transactions under his belt, including, most recently, the sale of US Cobalt to First Cobalt Corporation (TSX-V: FCC)(OTCQB: FTSSF), creating a post-transaction cobalt company valued at almost $400 million.

Canadian Palladium is Tisdale’s newest project, making the acquisition of the 992-hectare East Bull property located in Gerow Township, about 90 kilometers west of Sudbury, Ontario, Canada. East Bull benefits from historic drilling, surface trenching and geophysics which have identified significant precious and base metal mineralization in a number of zones with an emphasis on palladium.

The Sudbury Complex is one of the most PGM-rich land in Canada, historically hosting dozens of mines that produced more than 20.0 million ounces of PGM along with over 100 million ounces of ounces of gold and silver and 36 million pounds of copper and nickel.

Canadian Palladium and East Bull represent a true opportunity in the junior palladium mining space based upon the fact that a 43-101 report has been completed indicating a significant inferred palladium deposit.


Why Palladium?
Endless money printing, ultra-easy economic policy and chaos (political and civil) in the U.S. is going to drive gold to a new all-time high. Bet on it. You know what else is going higher? Palladium. In its June update on Platinum Group Metals (PGM), Commerzbank forecast both silvery-white precious metals to strengthen, with palladium remaining much more expensive than is sister metal. Analysts at BMO are onboard with palladium too, calling for $2,600 per ounce this year.

Palladium has several key drivers, particularly strong long-term technicals and fundamentals and, underscoring those, a protracted supply deficit with no end in sight. Most analysts agree that palladium will remain in a supply deficit for at least seven years. About 80% of palladium demand is for use in catalytic converters in gas-powered cars, although there are a bevy of smaller applications, including jewelry, spark plugs and healthcare (surgical instruments, dental, and diabetes test strips). With the bruising of industrial demand owing to COVID-19 falling into the rear-view, there is no reason to suspect that the supply shortfall won’t continue.

These factors should have metal investors looking hard at palladium plays in mining friendly jurisdictions, as buyers look to source goods from outside of Russia and South Africa, which weighed in at #1 and #2, respectively, for palladium production in 2018. Global tensions are perpetually high with Russia, and are reaching fever pitch with the U.S., while questions always linger regarding child labor at artisanal mines in South Africa.
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BULLish on Canadian Palladium
 Canada is in a strongposition as the world’s third-biggest palladium producer to close the wide gap by filling demand or taking share from the two top-producing countries.

Already known for its palladium reserves, Canada was cast in the spotlight when South Africa’s Impala Platinum Holdings, better known as “Implats,” agreed in October to pay C$1.0 billion for North American Palladium. Implat’s main prize was taking NAP’s ownership of Lac des Iles open-pit/underground mine located northwest of Thunder Bay in Ontario. The mine has been producing palladium for 25 years.

Lac de Iles had reported reserves of 36Mt of measured and indicated resources graded at 3.18 g/t of Pd (palladium), 0.26 g/t Pt (platinum), 0.22 g/t Au (gold), 0.07% Cu (copper) and 0.09% Ni (nickel). Palladium is mined Russia and South Africa as a byproduct of nickel/copper production, meaning that palladium-first deposits/mines attract industry attention and can command premium prices. This explains why Implats ventured from its home country to Canada to expand its palladium operations.

With minimal capex, the company believes it can increase the palladium reserves multiple fold, which should provide a boon in valuation from just C$8.6 million where it is now.
Time to Expand the Resource
Doing what he does best, Tisdale is expeditiously moving the project forward to prove there are valuable resources in the ground, and near-surface metals at that. Testing and analysis of historical data was used to generate a National Instrument 43-101 inferred estimate of 11.1 million tonnes of ore at a grade of 1.46 g/t palladium equivalent (PdEq) for a total of 523,000 ounces of palladium equivalent.

In the 43-101 report, P&E Mining Consultants noted the significant upside opportunity to expand the resource at the property with additional development.

This hypothesis is grounded in fact that point to an open pit mine opportunity. Over 1,800 meters of strike length has been drilled to a maximum depth of 120 meters. The mineralized zone is 3,600 meters (3.6 kilometers) in length and remains open at Depth and along strike. With further drilling success the company is targeting to substantially increase the inferred resource. With prices of Palladium at over $2,000 US/oz you can do the math on how valuable this deposit may be. 

Richard H. Sutcliffe, PhD, PGeo. is helping select the drill targets as a technical advisor to Canadian Palladium. Over the past 30 years, Dr. Sutcliffe has built a strong reputation for his key management roles in developing several gold, PGM, and copper-nickel mining projects, including servicing as President and CEO of TSX listed Ursa Major Minerals, a project partner in Sudbury of North American Palladium.

Canadian Palladium began drilling the new targets at the fully-licensed property last October. Drill results to date have reinforced the previous evidence that high-grade palladium is near surface. For instance, results in March from drill hole EB-20-01 had multiple intersects, including 3.32 g/t Palladium over 7.0 meters; 2.50 g/t Palladium over 10 meters; and 3.77 g/t combined Palladium + Platinum + Gold over 10 meters, including 7.13 g/t combined Palladium + Platinum + Gold over 3 meters.

Later that month after 10 drill holes had been completed, the drill program had to be suspended to comply with COVID-19 mandates, but that didn’t stop data from arriving in the interim before drilling resumed in June. It also didn’t prevent the commencement of a magnetotelluric geophysical survey in May to better define the property’s mineralization.

Grades in excess of 2.0 g/t Palladium have been a mainstay of the reports at depths less than 100 meters, with some cuts even showing significant Platinum. The latest drill results released June 24 followed the pattern, with a continuous cut of mineralization from 45-65 meters, highlighted by a 1-meter cut of 4.07 g/t Pd.
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A Savvy Plan and Great Economics
Probably the single biggest downfall of any explorer is the massive capex necessary to bring flip a project from exploration to production. Controlling capex is part of the Tisdale playbook. 

For starters, all the infrastructure is nearby. East Bull is accessible via an all-weather road, with food, fuel and lodging just 4 kilometers away. A power line is also only 4 kilometers away. A railroad line is 24 kilometers to the south.

The company is not planning on putting a mill and processing facility on-site. The future plan is for open pit mining where the ore will be crushed and shipped to Sudbury for sale to a mill company.

Tisdale tentatively estimates that ore can be produced in a range of just US$35/tonne, leaving plenty of headroom for strong margins while letting a downstream company shoulder all the processing expenses.

The unique positioning of Canadian Palladium with respect to the development of the property and NI 43-101 report makes it a challenge to find a comparable. Clearly NAP was much more advanced when it was acquired by Implats, but let’s use it anyway just as a future benchmark. At the time of acquisition, NAP had approximately 5.0 million ounces of PdEq in the ground and that – along with other mining operations assets – fetched C$1.0 billion. That equates to $200/ounce PdEq in the ground.

If Canadian Palladium can prove-up East Bull to host 1.5 million ounces of PdEq, the question certainly can be posed: What’s a fair valuation? It is certainly well above the current valuation of C$14 million.

Investors are certainly encouraged to perform their own calculations to include any multitude of factors, but probably should do them quickly as drilling has resumed.

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The COVID-Pullback = Opportunity
When the markets sold-off sharply over the novel coronavirus dubbed COVID-19, Palladium wasn’t immune. Simply, because of its heavy use in the auto industry, the fear was that demand would contract as economies around the world shut down, causing palladium to lose 50% of its value from a record over $2,700/oz to about $1,355/oz. Palladium has now clawed back half of those losses and looks to be heading higher in the near term. 
 
Shares of CSE-listed BULL and OTC-listed DCNFF, which were humming right along with the project development, unjustifiably collapsed about 70% with the news of the pandemic. Shares have regained a little bit of the ground, butremain nearly 60% below February levels. For now..

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